Resources / Sure Bet Whales
Sure Bet Whales
Every Polymarket wallet currently holding $100K+ in positions entered at 90¢+. 17 wallets, $12.9M of open exposure, all betting these markets resolve to 100¢.
Wallets tracked
17
Combined portfolio
$17.4M
Sure-bet position value
$12.9M
Lifetime realized PnL
$4.9M
| # | Wallet | Portfolio | Sure-bet position value | Open sure-bets | Sure-bet realized PnL ↓ | Top current bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xed10…d2e5 0xed10…d2e5 | $8.60M | $8.15M | 23 | +$1.6K |  US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? |
| 2 | 0x8b4b…541b 0x8b4b…541b | $1.63M | $1.02M | 38 | +$896 |  Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? |
| 3 | 0x5bff…ffbe 0x5bff…ffbe | $1.75M | $1.04M | 4 | +$710 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? |
| 4 | 0x3eaf…a927 0x3eaf…a927 | $373.7K | $206.1K | 1 | +$571 |  Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? |
| 5 | 0xdd1d…bbf0 0xdd1d…bbf0 | $211.4K | $89.4K | 5 | +$1 |  Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? |
| 6 | 0x6765…fa0d 0x6765…fa0d | $518.6K | $378.6K | 32 | +$0 |  Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? |
| 7 | 0x3c8a…b45a 0x3c8a…b45a | $512.5K | $142.7K | 3 | +$0 |  Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
| 8 | 0x5c14…cc49 0x5c14…cc49 | $514.7K | $77.6K | 5 | +$0 |  Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
| 9 | 0xfb74…1513 0xfb74…1513 | $315.8K | $32.0K | 1 | +$0 |  Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? |
| 10 | 0x7383…bd0b 0x7383…bd0b | $152.3K | $1.9K | 2 | +$0 |  Trump out as President by April 30? |
| 11 | 0x07aa…e110 0x07aa…e110 | $105.0K | $57.6K | 2 | +$0 |  Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? |
| 12 | 0xe8ff…c93b 0xe8ff…c93b | $292.8K | $145.7K | 5 | $-2 |  Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
| 13 | 0x1341…0853 0x1341…0853 | $716.1K | $688.3K | 31 | $-18 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? |
| 14 | 0xc97b…47e5 0xc97b…47e5 | $486.5K | $275.3K | 11 | $-1.9K |  Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? |
| 15 | 0x6ae1…1e7e 0x6ae1…1e7e | $427.7K | $141.2K | 15 | $-5.3K |  Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| 16 | 0xa3ff…540e 0xa3ff…540e | $424.8K | $222.0K | 4 | $-6.2K |  Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? |
| 17 | 0xfa21…1438 0xfa21…1438 | $353.7K | $286.0K | 16 | $-35.3K |  Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? |
Sure-bet metrics reflect currently-held positions only. Resolved or redeemable positions are excluded — a wallet showing 100% in sure-bets means 100% of its open dollar value sits in 90¢+ entries, not that the wallet has only ever traded sure-bets.
Last updated 2026-04-10 · Data via Polymarket public APIs