Resources / Sure Bet Whales
Sure Bet Whales
Every Polymarket wallet currently holding $100K+ in positions entered at 90¢+. 56 wallets, $21.4M of open exposure, all betting these markets resolve to 100¢.
Wallets tracked
56
Combined portfolio
$35.4M
Sure-bet position value
$21.4M
Lifetime realized PnL
$12.2M
| # | Wallet | Portfolio | Sure-bet position value | Open sure-bets | Sure-bet realized PnL ↓ | Top current bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x000d…758e 0x000d…758e | $958.3K | $392.8K | 16 | +$11.9K |  US forces enter Iran by April 30? |
| 2 | 0x47ab…95df 0x47ab…95df | $596.0K | $489.2K | 34 | +$6.2K | US forces enter Iran by April 30? |
| 3 | 0xed10…d2e5 0xed10…d2e5 | $6.43M | $5.98M | 29 | +$5.3K | US forces enter Iran by April 30? |
| 4 | 0x4bbe…2cf3 0x4bbe…2cf3 | $1.45M | $463.8K | 31 | +$2.9K |  Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? |
| 5 | 0x0c0e…434e 0x0c0e…434e | $483.6K | $320.5K | 29 | +$2.4K |  Netanyahu out by April 30? |
| 6 | 0xc5fa…5b59 0xc5fa…5b59 | $1.51M | $45.9K | 4 | +$2.1K |  Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? |
| 7 | 0xfb74…1513 0xfb74…1513 | $438.9K | $71.3K | 3 | +$1.0K |  Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? |
| 8 | 0x0d16…d24d 0x0d16…d24d | $1.22M | $302.0K | 33 | +$935 |  Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? |
| 9 | 0x4d49…7450 0x4d49…7450 | $381.4K | $381.4K | 6 | +$648 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? |
| 10 | 0xf8cc…5a82 0xf8cc…5a82 | $259.4K | $152.9K | 17 | +$600 |  Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? |
| 11 | 0x951e…cd9c 0x951e…cd9c | $138.9K | $112.0K | 8 | +$593 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? |
| 12 | 0x3eaf…a927 0x3eaf…a927 | $374.1K | $206.1K | 1 | +$571 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? |
| 13 | 0xc97b…47e5 0xc97b…47e5 | $500.9K | $283.1K | 20 | +$504 |  Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? |
| 14 | 0xe403…e5a4 0xe403…e5a4 | $177.4K | $177.4K | 3 | +$450 |  Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
| 15 | 0xa569…96ec 0xa569…96ec | $128.5K | $72.0K | 4 | +$413 |  Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
| 16 | 0x0b9c…7e44 0x0b9c…7e44 | $905.6K | $181.6K | 34 | +$332 |  Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? |
| 17 | 0x45b3…35bc 0x45b3…35bc | $1.06M | $864.6K | 15 | +$61 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? |
| 18 | 0x8b4b…541b 0x8b4b…541b | $1.52M | $960.4K | 38 | +$59 |  Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? |
| 19 | 0x1de9…831d 0x1de9…831d | $176.9K | $176.9K | 40 | +$45 |  Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? |
| 20 | 0x8349…c99d 0x8349…c99d | $376.8K | $136.8K | 11 | +$15 |  Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| 21 | 0xdd1d…bbf0 0xdd1d…bbf0 | $212.1K | $89.5K | 5 | +$1 |  Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? |
| 22 | 0x7383…bd0b 0x7383…bd0b | $154.2K | $1.9K | 5 | +$1 |  Trump out as President by April 30? |
| 23 | 0x5c14…cc49 0x5c14…cc49 | $515.8K | $117.5K | 5 | +$1 |  Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
| 24 | 0x1341…0853 0x1341…0853 | $890.6K | $774.0K | 36 | +$0 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? |
| 25 | 0xb48e…a144 0xb48e…a144 | $423.0K | $304.5K | 10 | +$0 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? |
| 26 | 0x6765…fa0d 0x6765…fa0d | $458.5K | $318.9K | 25 | +$0 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? |
| 27 | 0x3b6f…340b 0x3b6f…340b | $699.6K | $699.4K | 8 | +$0 |  Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| 28 | 0x3c8a…b45a 0x3c8a…b45a | $505.7K | $144.3K | 3 | +$0 |  Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
| 29 | 0x155d…2525 0x155d…2525 | $296.8K | $0 | 0 | +$0 | — |
| 30 | 0xa7ce…6398 0xa7ce…6398 | $761.0K | $562.1K | 7 | +$0 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? |
| 31 | 0xecb9…5a12 0xecb9…5a12 | $207.7K | $149.5K | 13 | +$0 |  Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| 32 | 0x842a…92f5 0x842a…92f5 | $261.5K | $0 | 0 | +$0 | — |
| 33 | 0x92f0…b1ea 0x92f0…b1ea | $613.9K | $613.9K | 2 | +$0 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? |
| 34 | 0x4d14…2366 0x4d14…2366 | $479.8K | $479.8K | 3 | +$0 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? |
| 35 | 0xfdac…e4cb 0xfdac…e4cb | $102.1K | $102.1K | 1 | +$0 |  Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? |
| 36 | 0xa1b2…40ca 0xa1b2…40ca | $216.7K | $0 | 0 | +$0 | — |
| 37 | 0x5f0e…4f11 0x5f0e…4f11 | $115.7K | $0 | 0 | +$0 | — |
| 38 | 0x005e…af93 0x005e…af93 | $346.2K | $0 | 0 | +$0 | — |
| 39 | 0x468a…2733 0x468a…2733 | $101.4K | $101.4K | 3 | +$0 |  Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
| 40 | 0x07aa…e110 0x07aa…e110 | $104.6K | $56.6K | 1 | +$0 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? |
| 41 | 0x6853…5846 0x6853…5846 | $148.5K | $127.3K | 5 | +$0 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
| 42 | 0x1809…0d24 0x1809…0d24 | $438.6K | $14.8K | 1 | +$0 |  MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? |
| 43 | 0xb9eb…ab05 0xb9eb…ab05 | $196.4K | $0 | 0 | +$0 | — |
| 44 | 0xfea3…d227 0xfea3…d227 | $768.6K | $160.9K | 27 | $-0 |  Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? |
| 45 | 0xe8ff…c93b 0xe8ff…c93b | $294.8K | $147.4K | 7 | $-2 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
| 46 | 0xe749…f771 0xe749…f771 | $252.2K | $251.9K | 7 | $-8 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? |
| 47 | 0xf705…3ca7 0xf705…3ca7 | $220.1K | $93.1K | 19 | $-110 |  Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? |
| 48 | 0x9c26…74bc 0x9c26…74bc | $490.5K | $475.4K | 3 | $-288 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? |
| 49 | 0x78c6…4710 0x78c6…4710 | $1.01M | $996.0K | 7 | $-337 |  Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
| 50 | 0x6606…1338 0x6606…1338 | $318.0K | $299.8K | 10 | $-1.5K | US forces enter Iran by April 30? |
| 51 | 0x014c…820c 0x014c…820c | $561.6K | $288.8K | 20 | $-1.5K | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? |
| 52 | 0x6ae1…1e7e 0x6ae1…1e7e | $425.4K | $141.5K | 17 | $-5.3K |  Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| 53 | 0xa3ff…540e 0xa3ff…540e | $424.7K | $227.0K | 4 | $-6.2K |  Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? |
| 54 | 0x5bff…ffbe 0x5bff…ffbe | $981.9K | $237.3K | 10 | $-6.4K |  Will Trump visit China by April 30? |
| 55 | 0xc8ab…6418 0xc8ab…6418 | $2.06M | $1.42M | 1077 | $-20.5K | US forces enter Iran by April 30? |
| 56 | 0xfa21…1438 0xfa21…1438 | $241.2K | $241.2K | 18 | $-34.6K |  Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? |
Sure-bet metrics reflect currently-held positions only. Resolved or redeemable positions are excluded — a wallet showing 100% in sure-bets means 100% of its open dollar value sits in 90¢+ entries, not that the wallet has only ever traded sure-bets.
Last updated 2026-04-07 · Data via Polymarket public APIs