Research
Long-form research on Polymarket, prediction markets, and DeFi.
Is Polymarket leaking? 14 days of HIP-4 data.
Hyperliquid's prediction markets product is two weeks old. Volumes, builder market share, and whether HIP-4 is actually pulling flow from Polymarket.
I've looked at every Up and Down BTC market. Here is what wins
172,701 five-minute BTC and ETH markets since launch in late 2024. 75.8 million positions. What actually wins on Polymarket's fastest product.
Polymarket's Paradox: 72% Win Rate, Negative PnL
Polymarket's most loyal users win 72% of their trades and still lose money. Why high win rates and negative PnL go together.
I Dug Into the Data: Uncovering Polymarket's Insiders
135 GB of on-chain data, 183 million trades across 138,000 resolved markets. Every major political event of 2024 lined up against the block where the price moved first.
Polymarket Sure Bets vs Aave Safe Yield
169M trades analyzed. 139K wallets quietly use Polymarket as a yield product. 75% of capital beats Aave. The math behind the strategy and why HIP-4 changes it.
HIP-4 and the Threat to Polymarket
Hyperliquid's HIP-4 introduces cross-margin to prediction markets. What it means for Polymarket's order book, liquidity, and the sure bet strategy.